Aluminium
Smelted from Bayer-refined alumina, aluminium pairs low mass with high conductivity and infinite recyclability. Transport electrification, foil for Li-ion batteries and energy-efficient buildings are pushing global demand to >100 Mt per year by the late-2020s. Because electricity can be >40 % of cash cost, producers are chasing hydro, wind and nuclear power, while breakthrough inert-anode cells promise to slash both CO₂ and labour intensity once commercial in the 2030s.
Supply Dynamics
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>60 % of smelting capacity sits in China and the Gulf, but hydropower Canada & Norway capture “green-premium” contracts.
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Guinea and Australia secure two-thirds of seaborne bauxite; political risk in Guinea and Indonesian export bans reshape flows.
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Power-price volatility forces marginal coal-based smelters to curtail, tightening prompt supply.
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Secondary aluminium already meets one-third of demand; high scrap prices spur further investments in sorting and melt-treatment.
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EU CBAM and U.S. IRA credits accelerate relocation of new capacity to low-carbon grids.
Demand Dynamics
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EVs and lightweight ICE vehicles lift metal intensity per unit >250 kg EV, outpacing steel downsizing.
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Grid expansion, busbars and battery foils tie growth directly to power-sector capital spending.
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Beverage-can sheet stays defensive: demand tracks GDP and near-100 % closed-loop recycling cuts virgin metal needs.
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Building facades and PV module frames scale with construction and renewable capacity additions.
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Scrap availability rises 3-4 % pa, flattening primary-metal demand in mature regions.