Uranium
Uranium-235’s fissile energy generates ~10 % of world electricity and is poised for expansion as China, India and the Gulf commission large reactors while Western utilities fund small-modular-reactor (SMR) fleets. Spot prices doubled 2020-24 on supply discipline, conversion bottlenecks and a pivot away from Russian enrichment. With ex-weapons down-blending now <5 % of feed, a structurally tighter market is emerging for the rest of the decade.
Supply Dynamics
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Kazakhstan ISR fields supply ≈ 43 % of U₃O₈; output flexes with price via wellflow.
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Canada’s Cigar Lake/MacArthur restarts and Niger’s Imouraren underpin new Western tonnes.
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Conversion capacity in US/French plants remains the key bottleneck; long-term contracts priced at premiums.
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Utilities actively diversify away from Russian enrichment, boosting demand for Western SWU.
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Secondary sources (tails re-enrichment, down-blending) cover <15 % and are declining.
Demand Dynamics
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Post-Fukushima restarts, new builds and announced SMRs lift utility procurement curves.
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Life-extension of OECD reactor fleets adds unplanned fuel demand.
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HALEU (≥ 19.75 % U-235) for advanced reactors creates a new enrichment tier.
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Financial vehicles (e.g., Sprott trust) sequester material, amplifying price swings.
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Naval propulsion and medical isotope targets provide small, price-inelastic baseload demand.