Copper
With unmatched conductivity, copper underpins electrification. EVs, high-voltage grids, offshore wind and AI data-centres are pushing refined demand toward 35 Mt by mid-2030s, yet falling ore grades and water scarcity in the Andes restrict mine growth. Scrap supplies roughly one-third of metal, but exchange inventories linger near multi-year lows, leaving the market finely balanced and price-sensitive to even minor disruptions.
Supply Dynamics
-
Chile & Peru still supply >35 % of ore, but grades decline and desalination CAPEX rises.
-
Heap-leach/SX-EW projects in Indonesia, the U.S. & Saudi Arabia target low-carbon cathode.
-
Community consent and water permits prolong project lead times beyond 8 years.
-
Scrap already covers ~32 % of refined output; export restrictions could tighten availability.
-
Exchange stocks hovering at historic lows make the market vulnerable to supply shocks.
Demand Dynamics
-
EVs add 60–80 kg Cu per car; >25 % sales CAGR drives the largest increment.
-
Offshore wind (~5 t Cu per MW) and grid upgrades reinforce structural demand.
-
AI/cloud data-centres increase bus-bar density and heat-sink copper per kW.
-
Construction wire-rod demand tracks urbanisation in emerging Asia.
-
Aluminium substitution remains limited to low- and medium-voltage segments.