Antimony
Antimony’s niche volumes, <150 kt per year, belie its strategic role. Converted to Sb₂O₃ for flame-retardant plastics and to metal for lead–acid batteries, it also features in emerging sodium-ion and solid-state battery chemistries. With ~70 % of mining and >80 % of smelting in China and Russia, price spikes exceed US$20 000 t during export restrictions, prompting Western defence stockpiling and R&D into performance-equal, cost-competitive substitutes.
Supply Dynamics
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Chinese mines deplete at higher strip ratios; concentrate imports from Tajikistan and Myanmar offset decline.
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Two Russian producers supply ~10 % of world metal; sanctions reroute flows to Asia, squeezing Europe.
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Recycling of lead-acid batteries yields ~20 % of global Sb, but falling ICE sales threaten this secondary stream.
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Australia (Costerfield), Canada (Beaver Brook restart) and the U.S. (Stibnite Gold) aim to diversify supply after 2026.
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Volatile policy-driven export quotas make long-term contracts difficult, contributing to extreme price elasticity.
Demand Dynamics
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Construction, E&E and textile fire-codes drive flame-retardant growth at 2-3 % pa.
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Global car-park expansion anchors lead-acid battery grids despite EV rise; each ICE still carries 8–10 kg Pb-Sb alloy.
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Grid-scale sodium-ion pilots use Sb-C composite anodes, a potential step-change in demand post-2030.
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Micro-solder pastes in 5G/AI hardware add small but high-value offtake.
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Regulatory bans on halogenated retardants could up- or down-shift Sb demand depending on substitute recipes.