Bauxite
As aluminium’s ore, bauxite demand scales almost one-for-one with decarbonisation-driven aluminium growth. High-gibbsite, low-reactive-silica ore from Guinea and Australia trims caustic use and red-mud residue by up to 30 %, a key ESG metric. With Indonesia oscillating between export bans and levies, refiners in China, India and the Middle East scramble for long-term supply, while Guinea invests in trans-Guinean rail to unlock hinterland deposits.
Supply Dynamics
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Guinea and Australia supply ~60 % of exports; political risk (Guinea coups) and weather events add price volatility.
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Indonesia’s stop-start bans accelerate ASEAN alumina refinery projects, tightening short-term feedstock availability.
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Brazil and West Africa’s nascent mines seek to displace Chinese domestic ore with lower-carbon material.
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Dry-stack tailings and residue valorisation improve social licence and lower cash costs over the project life.
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Capesize freight rates and Panama Canal draught restrictions materially affect CIF pricing into China.
Demand Dynamics
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Primary aluminium demand rises 3 % pa on EVs, packaging and renewables, lifting seaborne bauxite trade likewise.
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Low-carbon aluminium premiums (>US$120 t) incentivise refineries to secure low-silica ore and renewable power PPAs.
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Calcined bauxite for refractories grows with steel and cement output.
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Chinese environmental curbs on captive bauxite mining shift import dependency upward.
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Alumina blending strategies become more sophisticated to manage reactive-silica penalties.