Cerium
The most abundant rare-earth element, cerium trades at <$2 kg but anchors light-REE separation economics. Its Ce³⁺/Ce⁴⁺ redox swing powers precision-optic polishing powders and oxygen-storage materials in auto catalysts. Smartphone turnover, EV catalyst loading and greenhouse UV-cut glass are widening its demand base, supporting 5 % annual growth despite abundant supply.
Supply Dynamics
-
>90 % of cerium oxide originates from Chinese bastnäsite mines; separation is co-dependent on Nd/Pr prices.
-
Mountain Pass (USA) and Bayan Obo (China) stockpiles can be drawn down to stabilise price swings.
-
Ceria slurry recycling (oxo-calcination) recovers up to 30 % of spent polishing powder, cushioning supply gaps.
-
New solvent-extraction circuits in Laos and Australia aim to diversify light-REE supply by 2027.
-
Oversupply risk persists; however, processing costs (acid baking, calcination) set a de facto price floor.
Demand Dynamics
-
Flat-panel and smartphone refurbishment demand fine-grade CeO₂ slurries, volume grows with device recycling.
-
Tight Euro 7 tail-pipe rules increase ceria washcoat loading per vehicle even as ICE sales plateau.
-
Ce-doped UV-cut greenhouse glass raises agricultural yields, a fast-growing but still niche segment.
-
Hydrogen PEM fuel-cell catalysts trial ceria as a durability additive, potentially material post-2030.
-
Average cerium price sets the floor for bastnäsite concentrate economics, affecting REE mine viability.