Chromium
Chromium’s value hinges on ferrochrome - the corrosion-proofing heart of stainless steel. South Africa’s power curtailments and Kazakhstan’s logistics bottlenecks increasingly dictate spot prices, while EU carbon-border tariffs and the switch to trivalent plating chemicals demand higher-purity chromium metal. Scrap-fed stainless supply is rising, yet primary ore remains essential for high-nickel austenitic grades and hydrogen-service pipes.
Supply Dynamics
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South Africa supplies ~55 % of chromite ore but endures chronic load-shedding; new incentive tariff aims to revive idled smelters.
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Kazakhstan’s ferrochrome exports face rail congestion, lengthening lead times to Europe.
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India and Oman expand FeCr capacity on captive power and low-carbon grid commitments.
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Stainless scrap recovery already supplies 30 % of chromium units - higher scrap prices tighten virgin ore margins.
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EU CBAM will penalise coal-power ferrochrome, accelerating investment in renewables-powered smelters worldwide.
Demand Dynamics
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Global stainless output (3 % CAGR) is the single demand lever, each tonne requires 14–16 % Cr.
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Green-hydrogen projects specify 300-series or duplex stainless, boosting high-purity ferrochrome uptake.
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Decorative and functional plating shifts from hexavalent to trivalent baths, raising demand for refined Cr chemicals.
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Aerospace and energy tool steels add price-elastic niche demand tied to oil price and aircraft build-rates.
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Ferrochrome premiums widen when nickel spreads rise, as mills favour Cr-rich 200-series substitution