Fluorspar
Acid-grade fluorspar (≥97 % CaF₂) is the gateway to the entire fluorine value chain - HF, refrigerants, fluoropolymers and LiPF₆. China still mines ~60 % but export quotas and resource depletion have cut acidspar exports by 70 % since 2022, keeping prices firm. Non-Chinese projects in Mexico, South Africa and Mongolia are racing to catch battery-sector demand and the refrigerant transition to low-GWP HFOs.
Supply Dynamics
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Chinese mine depletion and safety crack-downs constrain new tonnage.
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Mexican and South African expansions lower Atlantic Basin dependency on China.
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Mongolia supplies metspar into China, freeing domestic acidspar for HF.
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EU-US critical-mineral designation unlocks debt finance for Western projects.
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Recycling of fluoropolymers/HF negligible; true circular flow likely post-2030.
Demand Dynamics
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Refrigerant mix pivots from HFCs to HFOs, maintaining HF intensity per unit.
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LiPF₆ capacity trebling by 2030 adds a structural pull on acidspar.
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Aluminium fluoride (AlF₃) demand rises with low-carbon smelting, a steady 3 % CAGR outlet.
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Steel flux (metspar) tracks blast-furnace output but faces hydrogen steel risk.
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Tight acidspar supply lifts spot premia, prompting substitution studies that rarely meet spec.