Gallium Supply Chain

Gallium

A soft, silvery post‑transition metal, which is a component in several advanced semiconductor and optoelectronic technologies. Its unique electronic and optical properties are most evident in compounds such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN). Together, these materials enable high‑performance radio‑frequency communications, power electronics, LEDs, and specialised photovoltaics. However, China controls about 85%t of refining and, after the 2024 export licences tripled spot prices, pilot recovery and recycling projects in the EU and the US accelerated.

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Supply Dynamics

Refined output tied to alumina refinery throughput - difficult to scale quickly.
Chinese export licences (2024) inject geopolitical risk into supply schedules.
U.S./EU demo plants target 20-30 t per year by 2027, mostly from spent GaAs wafers.
Japan’s long-running recycling base provides a strategic buffer for high-purity demand.
Any alumina capacity rationalisation in China could unexpectedly tighten gallium supply.

Demand Dynamics

GaN power devices penetrate consumer chargers then migrate to 800 V EV drivetrains.
GaAs maintains share in satellite comms, LiDAR VCSELs and defence radar.
Micro-LED and CIGS solar adoption offer optionality but remain volume-limited.
Price spikes test pass-through in handset and charger BOM cost.
Recycling of MOCVD targets can shave 8-10 % off primary demand by 2030.

Gallium supply chain transparency gap

Gallium consumption is opaque and poorly understood, with true numbers often obfuscated or misreported. Moreover, headline statistics ignore the gallium embedded in imported wafers, LEDs, and magnets. For example, the USGS cites nineteen tonnes of gallium metal used in the United States, yet true demand is far higher once GaAs and GaN content is included. Consequently, this lack of transparency hampers market assessment and investment planning, discouraging new Western production.

semiconductors one of the end destinations of gallium supply chain

China’s gallium grip

China currently produces about 98% of primary gallium, and recent export controls have exposed serious weaknesses in the gallium supply chain. Consequently, Western governments and companies are accelerating diversification efforts, for example, evaluating 50–100 t per year of by-product gallium from alumina refineries in Australia. However, any future relaxation of Chinese trade restrictions could flood the market, compress ex-China prices, and add to the inherent volatility that already characterises this niche metal.

China dominates primary low-purity (4N) gallium production, and has increased capacity significantly in the last decade [left]. This has resulted in price pressures and a subsequent decline in ex-China production [right].

See Our contribution to creating more resilient gallium supply chains

Other key minerals dependent on China

Antimony

Antimony

Antimony’s niche volumes, <150 kt per year, belie its strategic role. Converted to Sb₂O₃ for flame-retardant plastics and to metal for lead–acid batteries, it also features in emerging sodium-ion and solid-state battery chemistries. With ~70 % of mining and >80 % of smelting in China and Russia, price spikes exceed US$20 000 t during export restrictions, prompting Western defence stockpiling and R&D into performance-equal, cost-competitive substitutes.

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Fluorspar

Fluorspar

Acid-grade fluorspar (≥97 % CaF₂) is the gateway to the entire fluorine value chain - HF, refrigerants, fluoropolymers and LiPF₆. China still mines ~60 % but export quotas and resource depletion have cut acidspar exports by 70 % since 2022, keeping prices firm. Non-Chinese projects in Mexico, South Africa and Mongolia are racing to catch battery-sector demand and the refrigerant transition to low-GWP HFOs.

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Germanium

Germanium

A zinc-smelter by-product, germanium unites infrared transparency with high refractive index. Fibre-optic preforms, thermal-imaging lenses and space solar cells dominate demand. China refines ~70 % and tightened export controls in 2024, lifting prices >25 %. Recycling from fibre-scrap slurries and PET catalyst residues now supplies roughly 30 % of needs, but military-grade optics still require fresh high-purity feed.

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Heavy Rare-Earth Elements

Heavy Rare-Earth Elements

Heavy REEs power high-temperature Nd-Fe-B magnets, medical imaging and green phosphors but originate mainly from ion-adsorption clays in southern China and conflict-ridden Myanmar. Regulatory crack-downs, border closings and rising ESG standards swing prices violently; meanwhile, grain-boundary diffusion and magnet‐swarf recycling are reducing Dy/Tb intensity just as Western projects (Browns Range, Round Top, Donald) inch toward FID.

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Light Rare-Earth Elements

Light Rare-Earth Elements

Smelted from Bayer-refined alumina, aluminium pairs low mass with high conductivity and infinite recyclability. Transport electrification, foil for Li-ion batteries and energy-efficient buildings are pushing global demand to >100 Mt per year by the late-2020s. Because electricity can be >40 % of cash cost, producers are chasing hydro, wind and nuclear power, while breakthrough inert-anode cells promise to slash both CO₂ and labour intensity once commercial in the 2030s.

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Lithium

Lithium

The lightest metal is indispensable to Li-ion batteries. Hard-rock spodumene from Australia and brines in Chile/Argentina remain core feedstocks, but direct-lithium-extraction (DLE) pilots from Canada to Serbia and geothermal brines in the US/Europe are poised to diversify flows. After a 90 % price slide in 2023-24, oversupply masks an outlook in which EV uptake could still triple demand by 2030, making water rights, ESG, and recycling decisive.

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Magnesium

Magnesium

The lightest structural metal, magnesium sheds mass in die-cast EV parts and tunes ductility in aluminium sheet. >80 % of primary metal is still produced via China’s energy-intensive Pidgeon process, making carbon cost and geopolitical concentration the twin risks. Europe and North America are piloting inert-anode, carbothermic and scrap-loop routes aimed at halving CO₂ per tonne and localising supply before 2030.

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Natural Graphite

Natural Graphite

Natural flake graphite (purified and spheroidised) dominates today’s EV anodes, at 50–60 kg per 80 kWh pack. China controls mining and anode processing, but Western OEMs are co-funding mine-to-anode projects in Canada, Norway and the US to mitigate geopolitical risk and adopt HF-free purification. Silicon-graphite composites and life-cycle CO₂ limits are redrawing quality specs and giving premium to low-impurity, low-footprint feed.

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Tungsten

Tungsten

Tungsten’s 3 422 °C melting point and ultra-high density make it critical for cemented-carbide cutting tools, kinetic armour and radiation shielding. China still mines ~80 % and controls nearly all APT processing, but Sangdong (South Korea) and Mactung (Canada) are reviving dormant assets to diversify Western supply. Additive-manufacturing powders and medical-collimator alloys provide emerging demand alongside traditional drilling and machining segments.

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Vanadium

Vanadium

Vanadium micro-alloys lift rebar yield strength and toughness, saving tonnes of steel in buildings, bridges and pipelines. The next demand leg is grid-scale vanadium-redox-flow batteries (VRFB), which store eight-hour energy with 20-year lifetimes; electrolyte leasing is unlocking adoption. Prices, however, remain pegged to co-production of V₂O₅ from Chinese, South-African and Russian steel slags, creating cyclicality tied to carbon-steel output.

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Gallium market outlook: Risks and investment drivers

Volatile Price Trajectory

Export controls have split prices inside and outside China, yet convergence is probable once restrictions relax.
Under‑utilised Chinese capacity (estimated at 50–100 t per year) may return to the market, amplifying downward pressure.
Small traded volumes and high supply concentration mean gallium could swing below cost‑to‑produce during the next 2–10 years.

Partnership Imperatives

New Western projects require offtake agreements that lock in long‑term prices.
Government incentives on capital or operating costs can offset future price dips.
Diversified sourcing partnerships create a more resilient gallium supply chain, reducing reliance on China.

Hidden Demand, Missing Data

Current statistics ignore gallium embedded in GaAs and GaN devices, LEDs, and magnets.
Accurate end‑use mapping is essential for credible business cases and loan approvals.
Better consumption visibility supports investor confidence and de‑risks project finance.

We offer expert support for gallium supply challenges

Our team turns opaque market signals into actionable insight. Using advanced analytics and first‑hand industry data, we map the gallium supply chain end‑to‑end, quantify real demand, stress‑test price scenarios, and structure partnerships that secure feedstock and funding.
We bring core expertise to every engagement.

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Explore all specialty metals

Aluminium

Aluminium

Smelted from Bayer-refined alumina, aluminium pairs low mass with high conductivity and infinite recyclability. Transport electrification, foil for Li-ion batteries and energy-efficient buildings are pushing global demand to >100 Mt per year by the late-2020s. Because electricity can be >40 % of cash cost, producers are chasing hydro, wind and nuclear power, while breakthrough inert-anode cells promise to slash both CO₂ and labour intensity once commercial in the 2030s.

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Antimony

Antimony

Antimony’s niche volumes, <150 kt per year, belie its strategic role. Converted to Sb₂O₃ for flame-retardant plastics and to metal for lead–acid batteries, it also features in emerging sodium-ion and solid-state battery chemistries. With ~70 % of mining and >80 % of smelting in China and Russia, price spikes exceed US$20 000 t during export restrictions, prompting Western defence stockpiling and R&D into performance-equal, cost-competitive substitutes.

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Baryte

Baryte

With a density ≥4.1 g per cm³ and chemical inertness, BaSO₄ remains the unrivalled weighting agent for oil- and gas-well muds - consuming >75 % of the 9 Mt market. Drilling activity is highly cyclical: each 10 % swing in global rig count moves baryte demand ≈1 Mt. Niche growth comes from radiation-shielding concrete, barium contrast agents and high-whiteness pigments, but these segments cannot offset downturns in hydrocarbon exploration.

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Bauxite

Bauxite

As aluminium’s ore, bauxite demand scales almost one-for-one with decarbonisation-driven aluminium growth. High-gibbsite, low-reactive-silica ore from Guinea and Australia trims caustic use and red-mud residue by up to 30 %, a key ESG metric. With Indonesia oscillating between export bans and levies, refiners in China, India and the Middle East scramble for long-term supply, while Guinea invests in trans-Guinean rail to unlock hinterland deposits.

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Beryllium

Beryllium

Producing barely 300 t per year, beryllium is the definition of high-value, low-volume. Its Cu-Be alloys marry springiness with 3× steel’s stiffness and excellent conductivity, underpinning mission-critical aerospace connectors, oil-tool bushings and 5G base-station sockets. Pure Be’s cryogenic stability enables James-Webb-class space mirrors. Extreme toxicity in dust form drives stringent OSHA/REACH limits, keeping processing capacity concentrated with one fully integrated U.S. producer and a few small Kazakh and Chinese refiners.

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Bismuth

Bismuth

As the heaviest non-toxic metal, bismuth is pulled into lead-replacement markets from RoHS-compliant plumbing solder and free-machining brasses to low-melt safety links. Pharmaceuticals and pearlescent pigments offer steady niches. Because ~80 % of refined output is recovered as a by-product of Chinese lead smelters, bismuth’s availability, and its notoriously spiky price, ultimately track lead-acid battery cycles and smelter utilisation.

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Borates

Borates

Borate minerals—kernite, colemanite, ulexite—supply boron for borosilicate glass, fibreglass insulation, flame-retardant additives, fertiliser micronutrients and powerful Nd-Fe-B magnets (B is the third element). Turkey’s Eti Maden and Rio Tinto’s California boron complex together cover >70 % of global demand. Solar-panel glass, MAT fiberglass for offshore blades and Li-borate battery electrolytes are expanding borate use beyond the mature detergents market.

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Boron

Boron

Elemental boron, just a few hundred tonnes annually, is made via Mg-reduction of high-purity B₂O₃. Combining extreme hardness, neutron absorption and magnet-strengthening ability, it commands >US$25 kg. Demand pools in armour-grade boron carbide, Nd-Fe-B magnets, and nuclear control rods, all of which prize purity over price, keeping the market tight despite small tonnages.

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Cerium

Cerium

The most abundant rare-earth element, cerium trades at <$2 kg but anchors light-REE separation economics. Its Ce³⁺/Ce⁴⁺ redox swing powers precision-optic polishing powders and oxygen-storage materials in auto catalysts. Smartphone turnover, EV catalyst loading and greenhouse UV-cut glass are widening its demand base, supporting 5 % annual growth despite abundant supply.

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Chromium

Chromium

Chromium’s value hinges on ferrochrome - the corrosion-proofing heart of stainless steel. South Africa’s power curtailments and Kazakhstan’s logistics bottlenecks increasingly dictate spot prices, while EU carbon-border tariffs and the switch to trivalent plating chemicals demand higher-purity chromium metal. Scrap-fed stainless supply is rising, yet primary ore remains essential for high-nickel austenitic grades and hydrogen-service pipes.

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Cobalt secures high-energy Li-ion cathodes and reinforces nickel super-alloys. Although low-cobalt chemistries are spreading, energy-dense NCM 811 and NCMA batteries plus an aerospace rebound keep absolute demand rising. Roughly three-quarters of ore comes from the DRC and >50 % of refining from China, but Indonesian HPAL projects and battery-metal recycling are redrawing the cost curve and diversifying supply.

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Copper

Copper

With unmatched conductivity, copper underpins electrification. EVs, high-voltage grids, offshore wind and AI data-centres are pushing refined demand toward 35 Mt by mid-2030s, yet falling ore grades and water scarcity in the Andes restrict mine growth. Scrap supplies roughly one-third of metal, but exchange inventories linger near multi-year lows, leaving the market finely balanced and price-sensitive to even minor disruptions.

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Diatomite

Diatomite

Diatomite’s microscopic frustules give high porosity and low density, making it an irreplaceable filter aid for beer, edible oils and biofuels while lightening plasterboard, paints and plastics. Growth is modest but steady, mirroring beverage consumption and the shift to talc-free fillers. High-purity deposits are scarce, so premium producers enjoy pricing power despite the sector’s overall small tonnage.

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Dysprosium

Dysprosium

Dysprosium adds high-temperature coercivity to Nd-Fe-B magnets for EV traction motors and offshore turbines. Supply is concentrated in ion-adsorption clays of southern China and conflict-prone Myanmar, so regulatory clampdowns trigger sharp price swings. Grain-boundary diffusion, recycling and motor redesigns curb Dy intensity, yet absolute demand still grows with magnet volume in electrification and defence applications.

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Erbium

Erbium

Erbium’s 1.53 µm emission enables erbium-doped fibre amplifiers (EDFA), the backbone of long-haul and metro telecom networks. Although annual consumption is only a few hundred tonnes, 800 G optical upgrades, high-speed data growth and medical-laser applications push demand ≈8 % CAGR. Supply is a heavy-REE by-product from Chinese clay leachates; purity, not tonnage, determines price, keeping the market balanced yet concentrated.

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Fluorine

Fluorine

Generated in situ by KHF₂ electrolysis, elemental fluorine is too reactive to ship, so value concentrates in derivatives: UF₆ for enrichment, SF₆ for switch-gear, PTFE/FEP resins and the fast-growing LiPF₆ electrolyte salt. Tight regulation of high-GWP refrigerants is steering demand toward low-GWP HFOs that still need large HF volumes, while semiconductor-grade fluorosurfactants and dry-etch gases add a high-margin growth leg.

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Fluorspar

Fluorspar

Acid-grade fluorspar (≥97 % CaF₂) is the gateway to the entire fluorine value chain - HF, refrigerants, fluoropolymers and LiPF₆. China still mines ~60 % but export quotas and resource depletion have cut acidspar exports by 70 % since 2022, keeping prices firm. Non-Chinese projects in Mexico, South Africa and Mongolia are racing to catch battery-sector demand and the refrigerant transition to low-GWP HFOs.

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Gallium

Gallium

Recovered as a by-product of Bayer liquor and zinc residues, 4N gallium feeds GaAs and GaN devices that outclass silicon at high frequency and voltage. China, controlling ~85 % of refining, imposed export licences in 2024, sending spot prices up three-fold and catalysing EU-US pilot recovery rigs and target-recycling loops. GaN fast-chargers, 800-V EV inverters and satellite RF chips point to double-digit demand growth through the decade.

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Germanium

Germanium

A zinc-smelter by-product, germanium unites infrared transparency with high refractive index. Fibre-optic preforms, thermal-imaging lenses and space solar cells dominate demand. China refines ~70 % and tightened export controls in 2024, lifting prices >25 %. Recycling from fibre-scrap slurries and PET catalyst residues now supplies roughly 30 % of needs, but military-grade optics still require fresh high-purity feed.

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Gold

Gold

Beyond its monetary mystique, gold’s ductility and corrosion resistance embed it in electronics, dentistry and medical devices. Jewellery still absorbs ~45 % of demand, while central-bank purchases above 1,000 t for a third straight year underpin a price hovering near record highs. In electronics, AI accelerator chips and advanced packaging keep ultra-thin gold wire and RDL plating relevant, even as mainstream bonding wire migrates to copper.

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Hafnium

Hafnium

Separated laboriously from zirconium streams, hafnium serves three strategic niches: neutron-absorbing control rods for Gen-III+ and SMR reactors, creep-resistant Ni-based turbine alloys, and high-κ HfO₂ gate dielectrics that now sit in >90 % of sub-10 nm CMOS chips. Annual availability is only a few hundred tonnes; prices react instantly to aerospace build rates and to zircon-sand output shifts in Australia, South Africa and Mozambique.

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Heavy Rare-Earth Elements

Heavy Rare-Earth Elements

Heavy REEs power high-temperature Nd-Fe-B magnets, medical imaging and green phosphors but originate mainly from ion-adsorption clays in southern China and conflict-ridden Myanmar. Regulatory crack-downs, border closings and rising ESG standards swing prices violently; meanwhile, grain-boundary diffusion and magnet‐swarf recycling are reducing Dy/Tb intensity just as Western projects (Browns Range, Round Top, Donald) inch toward FID.

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Indium

Indium

Sourced as a zinc-smelter by-product, indium feeds the transparent-conductor chain: ITO coats dominate flat-panel displays, PV glass and OLEDs, while low-melt solders secure 5 G power amps and cryogenic seals. Primary refining remains concentrated in China and South Korea, yet closed-loop recovery from spent ITO sputter targets now covers more than one-quarter of global metal, smoothing historically violent LCD-cycle swings.

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Iron Ore

Iron Ore

Steel’s 1.9 Gt appetite still hinges on Pilbara and Carajás fines, yet the decarbonisation drive is tilting premiums toward ultra-high-grade magnetite pellets (<1 % gangue) suited for hydrogen-based DRI. Simandou’s 65 %-Fe ore is slated for first shipments in 2025–26, potentially reshaping the cost curve. ESG scrutiny on tailings and water use forces beneficiation upgrades and co-designed heritage plans across new projects.

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Lanthanum

Lanthanum

Abundant and low-priced, lanthanum is the volume-carrier of the light-REE basket: it stabilises ceria in fluid-cracking catalysts (FCC), polishes smartphone glass and enhances high-index optics. Although Ni-MH battery demand fades, steady FCC consumption and new high-refractive smartphone lenses anchor offtake, which is vital because selling La offsets the separation cost of pricier Nd/Pr in any bastnäsite project.

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Lead

Lead

Dense, easily cast, and electro-chemically stable, lead underpins the world’s ≈ 1 GWh per year starter- and reserve-battery market. Closed-loop recycling is highly efficient—secondary smelters already deliver ~60 % of refined metal—yet primary mines in China, Australia and Peru remain critical to balance. Data-centre UPS, telecom back-up and emerging 48 V micro-hybrid vehicles keep lead-acid volumes resilient even as EVs spread.

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Light Rare-Earth Elements

Light Rare-Earth Elements

Smelted from Bayer-refined alumina, aluminium pairs low mass with high conductivity and infinite recyclability. Transport electrification, foil for Li-ion batteries and energy-efficient buildings are pushing global demand to >100 Mt per year by the late-2020s. Because electricity can be >40 % of cash cost, producers are chasing hydro, wind and nuclear power, while breakthrough inert-anode cells promise to slash both CO₂ and labour intensity once commercial in the 2030s.

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Lithium

Lithium

The lightest metal is indispensable to Li-ion batteries. Hard-rock spodumene from Australia and brines in Chile/Argentina remain core feedstocks, but direct-lithium-extraction (DLE) pilots from Canada to Serbia and geothermal brines in the US/Europe are poised to diversify flows. After a 90 % price slide in 2023-24, oversupply masks an outlook in which EV uptake could still triple demand by 2030, making water rights, ESG, and recycling decisive.

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Lutetium

Lutetium

The rarest REE, lutetium trades in mere tens of tonnes yet tops the price charts. Lu-doped LYSO scintillators are essential for high-resolution PET/CT scanners, while Lu-177-based radiopharma is one of the fastest-growing targeted cancer treatments. Production is an unavoidable by-product of heavy-REE separation from Chinese ion-adsorption clays. Any disruption or quota change drives extreme price volatility and incents medical-isotope recyclers.

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Magnesite

Magnesite

Magnesite (MgCO₃) is calcined into caustic-calcined and dead-burned magnesia that line basic oxygen and electric-arc furnaces which are still irreplaceable for steel refractories. China controls ~70 % of capacity but has tightened quotas and emissions rules, sending buyers to Turkey, Brazil and Australia. As steelmakers pursue circularity, spent MgO-C brick recycling and fused-grain re-firing are supplementing virgin supply and reducing landfill.

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Magnesium

Magnesium

The lightest structural metal, magnesium sheds mass in die-cast EV parts and tunes ductility in aluminium sheet. >80 % of primary metal is still produced via China’s energy-intensive Pidgeon process, making carbon cost and geopolitical concentration the twin risks. Europe and North America are piloting inert-anode, carbothermic and scrap-loop routes aimed at halving CO₂ per tonne and localising supply before 2030.

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Manganese

Manganese

Essential for de-oxidising and strengthening steel, manganese is also pivoting into batteries: high-Mn NMC 9½½, LMFP and sodium-ion cathodes promise lower cost and cobalt-free supply chains. Ore derives mainly from South Africa, Gabon and Australia, but value creation is shifting to high-purity sulfate and electrolytic Mn metal (EMM) (both >90 % China-centric) highlighting processing, not ore, as the key bottleneck.

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Molybdenum

Molybdenum

Mostly a copper-porphyry by-product, molybdenum hardens stainless steels, powers hydro-desulfurisation catalysts and withstands 1 000 °C in turbine super-alloys. As LNG build-outs and aerospace cycles accelerate, demand is trending upward ~3 % CAGR. Scrap already covers a quarter of oxide supply, cushioning price swings when copper output ebbs. Chilean SX-EW expansions and Chinese mine restarts are expected to keep the market balanced.

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Natural Graphite

Natural Graphite

Natural flake graphite (purified and spheroidised) dominates today’s EV anodes, at 50–60 kg per 80 kWh pack. China controls mining and anode processing, but Western OEMs are co-funding mine-to-anode projects in Canada, Norway and the US to mitigate geopolitical risk and adopt HF-free purification. Silicon-graphite composites and life-cycle CO₂ limits are redrawing quality specs and giving premium to low-impurity, low-footprint feed.

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Neodymium

Neodymium

Together with praseodymium, neodymium forms Nd-Fe-B, which is the strongest commercial permanent magnet, enabling compact EV motors, 15-MW offshore-wind nacelles and precision robotics. China still supplies ~85 % of NdPr oxide and fabricates most magnets, but expansions in the US (Mountain Pass) and Australia (Mt Weld) plus European recycling plants aim to temper concentration. Even with Dy/Tb thrift, Nd demand is expected to grow ~8 % CAGR this decade.

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Nickel

Nickel

Nickel delivers both corrosion resistance in stainless steel and high-energy density in NCA/NMC Li-ion cathodes. Indonesia’s ore-export ban has pushed billions into local HPAL and Rotary Kiln–Electric Furnace (RKEF) capacity, vaulting it to the top of the mine-supply league. Class-I sulphide nickel from Canada, Australia and Russia remains tight, and essential, for battery chemicals, spurring investments in carbonyl-refining of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) into battery-grade sulphate.

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Niobium

Niobium

With additions as low as 0.02–0.1 %, niobium refines grain size in HSLA steels, enabling lighter pipelines, LNG tanks and high-rise frameworks. Outside steel, superconducting Nb-Ti and Nb₃Sn wires power MRI scanners and particle accelerators, while emerging niobium-graphene and Nb-rich anodes promise fast-charging batteries. Market volume is modest (<150 kt ferroniobium eq.), but strategic concentration in Brazil keeps users alert.

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Palladium

Palladium

Palladium’s surface chemistry underpins three-way autocatalysts in gasoline and hybrid vehicles, oxidising CO/HC and reducing NOₓ. Russia and South Africa dominate primary supply, but spent-catalyst recycling already meets ~30 % of refined metal. EV market share caps long-range growth; however, tighter emission norms, higher average engine displacement in SUVs, and the hybrid boom keep near-term loadings elevated and price volatility high.

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Platinum

Platinum

Platinum combines extraordinary catalytic activity with chemical inertness. Diesel autocatalysts, nitric-acid and silicone manufacture, and jewellery account for three-quarters of demand today, but PEM fuel-cell stacks and PEM electrolysers for green hydrogen represent the fastest-growing pull. Mine supply is heavily South-African; recycling from spent autocats already covers ~25 % and will keep climbing as EV drivetrain penetration reshapes end-of-life flows.

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Platinum-Group Metals (PGMs)

Platinum-Group Metals (PGMs)

The six PGMs (Pt, Pd, Rh, Ir, Ru, Os) share catalytic versatility vital for emission control, petrochemicals and hydrogen technologies. Markets are tightly interlinked: automaker substitution between Pt and Pd shifts price ratios, while rhodium (only ~25 t a year mine output) drives outsized volatility. >70 % of PGM ore emerges from South Africa, 10 % from Russia; autocatalyst recycling is therefore a critical, quickly expanding secondary pipeline.

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Potash

Potash

Potash - chiefly muriate (KCl) and sulfate of potash (K₂SO₄) supplies the potassium that drives yield, fruit size and water-use efficiency. Global demand grows ~2 % CAGR with population, protein-rich diets and irrigated acreage, yet trade is concentrated in Saskatchewan solution mines and Russian/Belarusian shaft mines. Price spikes follow geopolitical shocks or rail bottlenecks; brine projects in Africa and Australia aim to smooth the cost curve later this decade.

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Praseodymium

Praseodymium

Praseodymium forms roughly 18 % of Nd-Pr oxide, the backbone of high-energy Nd-Fe-B magnets that drive EVs, turbines and robotics. Smaller streams colour glass yellow-green and strengthen ultra-light Mg-Pr alloys for aerospace. Prices shadow neodymium yet trade at a premium because Pr output is naturally lower. Securing reliable Pr is therefore as critical as Nd for Western “mine-to-motor” projects.

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Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

Rare Earth Elements (REEs)

The 17 REEs enable efficient motors, LED lighting, clean fuels and cutting-edge optics. China still controls ~85 % of oxide output and nearly all metal-to-magnet capacity, but new mines, solvent-extraction plants and magnet factories in the US, Australia, Europe and India are redefining the map. Financing, environmental permitting and reagent intensity keep barriers high, so policy now targets cradle-to-motor integration outside China.

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Rhenium

Rhenium

Rhenium is extracted from molybdenite roaster dust at porphyry copper operations. It fortifies single-crystal superalloys, enabling turbine blades to run above 1 100 °C, and promotes high-octane gasoline in Pt-Re reforming catalysts. With global output barely 70 t, prices track aerospace build cycles. Recycling of spent superalloy scrap is climbing but limited by slow engine retirement, keeping primary roaster supply vital.

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Rhodium

Rhodium

Rhodium offers unmatched NOₓ-reduction activity in gasoline autocatalysts. Annual primary supply is only 25–30 t, mostly from South African PGM mines, making Rh the priciest major metal. Euro 7, US Tier 3 and China 7 regulations lock in high per-vehicle loadings, while hybrid power-trains delay the switch to zero-Rh BEVs. Glass-fibre bushings and reflective coatings add niche, price-inelastic demand.

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Samarium

Samarium

Samarium is harvested as a minor component of light-REE streams, yet it underpins strategic technologies. SmCo magnets retain full strength up to ≈ 350 °C, an indispensable property for precision actuators in missiles, jet-control surfaces and down-hole drilling tools. The isotope Sm-149’s colossal neutron-capture cross-section secures its role in reactor control materials, while Sm-153 radioisotopes relieve cancer pain. Only ~4 kt Sm oxide is traded yearly, making defence procurement swings visible in pricing.

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Scandium

Scandium

Scandium’s magic lies in trace additions (mere hundreds of ppm) to aluminium, yielding weldable, high-strength Al-Sc alloys tailor-made for lightweight aerospace parts, EV chassis and additive-manufactured bike frames. Global oxide output is < 40 t per year, split between Ni-Co laterite off-gas recovery and bauxite red-mud leaching, so prices > US $1 000 kg keep demand niche. SOFCs already absorb a steady 20 % share, while Australian ionic-clay deposits may double supply by 2030.

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Selenium

Selenium

Recovered from copper anode slimes, selenium punches above its weight in markets as diverse as glass de-colourising, vitamin-rich animal feed and CIGS thin-film solar cells. With CRT photo-conductors gone, demand now balances steady glass offtake against rising PV and nutritional uses. Annual production (slightly over 3 kt) moves with copper cathode output, keeping price sensitive to smelter maintenance and mine expansions.

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Silver

Silver

Silver marries peerless electrical conductivity with strong cultural prestige. Solar photovoltaic pastes are now the fastest-growing sink (TOPCon and HJT lines use ≈ 20 mg Ag per Watt) while 5 G RF filters, AI server interposers and antimicrobial coatings extend high-tech pull. Jewellery and bullion still command ~35 % of demand, anchoring investment sentiment. Mine supply is concentrated in Mexico, Peru and China; urban e-scrap already furnishes ~15 % and climbing.

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Tantalum

Tantalum

Tantalum offers unmatched capacitance and biocompatibility. Electrolytic Ta capacitors are vital for aerospace avionics, 5 G base-stations and implantable medical devices where failure is unacceptable. Superalloy grain-boundary strengthening, sputter targets and surgical hardware add specialised pull. Global powder demand is only ~2 kt, but conflict-mineral regulation and audits define purchasing; capacitor-scrap recycling already supplies ~30 %, cushioning mine disruptions.

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Tellurium

Tellurium

Recovered as a trace element in copper-anode slimes, tellurium underpins cadmium-telluride (CdTe) thin-film modules that deliver the lowest levelised cost of electricity in hot, diffuse-light regions. First Solar’s locked-in offtake absorbs most incremental growth, while thermoelectric devices for space probes, free-machining steels and rubber accelerators round out smaller but resilient uses. With global output still < 600 t per year, recycling end-of-life CdTe glass is now central to long-term supply security.

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Terbium

Terbium

Terbium is the green in LED phosphors and the grain-boundary additive that lets Nd-Fe-B magnets stay strong above 180 °C. With oxide supply below 1 000 t per year and sourced almost entirely from ion-adsorption clays in southern China and Myanmar, price routinely exceeds US $1 500 kg. Magnet makers are stretching each kilogram through Dy/Tb diffusion and scrap recycling, yet absolute demand still rises with EV motors and ultra-high-brightness LEDs.

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Tin

Tin

Tin’s unmatched wetting and low-melting traits make it the backbone of lead-free solders, tinplate cans and PV ribbon. Indonesia and China mine half the metal, while Myanmar and artisanal DRC concentrates feed Chinese smelters. With solid-state and Li-ion chemistries testing Sn-Sb and SnO₂ anodes, the metal is gaining a potential second growth engine just as circular-electronics rules boost solder-dross recycling.

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Titanium

Titanium

Ninety percent of titanium feed becomes TiO₂ pigment, providing unmatched brightness and UV stability in paints, plastics and paper. The remaining sponge metal segment delivers the aerospace industry’s go-to alloy for strength, fatigue resistance and corrosion immunity. Ilmenite and rutile mines in Australia, Mozambique and South Africa dominate feedstock; meanwhile electrolytic Kroll-replacement and HAMR pilots promise to halve both energy use and CO₂ intensity.

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Tungsten

Tungsten

Tungsten’s 3 422 °C melting point and ultra-high density make it critical for cemented-carbide cutting tools, kinetic armour and radiation shielding. China still mines ~80 % and controls nearly all APT processing, but Sangdong (South Korea) and Mactung (Canada) are reviving dormant assets to diversify Western supply. Additive-manufacturing powders and medical-collimator alloys provide emerging demand alongside traditional drilling and machining segments.

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Uranium

Uranium

Uranium-235’s fissile energy generates ~10 % of world electricity and is poised for expansion as China, India and the Gulf commission large reactors while Western utilities fund small-modular-reactor (SMR) fleets. Spot prices doubled 2020-24 on supply discipline, conversion bottlenecks and a pivot away from Russian enrichment. With ex-weapons down-blending now <5 % of feed, a structurally tighter market is emerging for the rest of the decade.

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Vanadium

Vanadium

Vanadium micro-alloys lift rebar yield strength and toughness, saving tonnes of steel in buildings, bridges and pipelines. The next demand leg is grid-scale vanadium-redox-flow batteries (VRFB), which store eight-hour energy with 20-year lifetimes; electrolyte leasing is unlocking adoption. Prices, however, remain pegged to co-production of V₂O₅ from Chinese, South-African and Russian steel slags, creating cyclicality tied to carbon-steel output.

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Ytterbium

Ytterbium

Ytterbium, produced in only a few-hundred-tonne stream from Chinese heavy-REE circuits, dopes high-power fibre lasers that cut automotive steel, weld EV batteries and 3-D-print aerospace alloys. Its ytterbium-doped amplifiers dominate the rapidly expanding industrial-laser sector under Industry 4.0. Niche uses in quantum sensing and cast-steel grain refinement add technological cachet but little volume.

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Yttrium

Yttrium

Yttrium stabilises zirconia (YSZ) ceramics that protect turbine blades, sense oxygen in auto exhausts and conduct ions in solid-oxide fuel cells. Y₂O₃ also yields the red in LED phosphors and hosts high-brightness garnets. Demand is diversified (fuel cells, LEDs, aerospace coatings) providing steady but modest growth. Supply remains centred on Chinese ion-adsorption clays, with Western clay and monazite projects eyeing by-product recovery.

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Zinc

Zinc

Zinc’s sacrificial galvanic layer protects ≈ 700 Mt yr of steel, from bridges to SUVs, while die-cast alloys and brass components add precision and aesthetics. As infrastructure stimulus and re-shoring swell galvanised-steel orders, demand looks stable, even before zinc-air batteries mature. Recycling from galvanised scrap and electric-arc-furnace dust already delivers a quarter of refined metal, buffering mine-grade decline.

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Zirconium

Zirconium

Zirconium is extracted from zircon sand and, once de-hafinised, combines near-zero neutron absorption with outstanding corrosion resistance, qualities that make it the universal cladding alloy for pressurised- and boiling-water reactors. Outside the nuclear sector, milled zircon becomes an opaque pigment extender, while stabilised zirconia feeds refractory bricks, dental crowns and emerging hypersonic AM parts. Long-term growth therefore straddles expanding reactor fleets, resilient ceramics and high-temperature additive manufacturing.

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