Germanium
A zinc-smelter by-product, germanium unites infrared transparency with high refractive index. Fibre-optic preforms, thermal-imaging lenses and space solar cells dominate demand. China refines ~70 % and tightened export controls in 2024, lifting prices >25 %. Recycling from fibre-scrap slurries and PET catalyst residues now supplies roughly 30 % of needs, but military-grade optics still require fresh high-purity feed.
Supply Dynamics
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Supply relies on zinc smelter throughput; base-metal downturns choke Ge feed.
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China’s 2024 export controls heighten strategic interest, push Western stockpiling.
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Secondary recovery efficiency now exceeds 80 % in fibre-scrap loops.
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Coal fly-ash projects in the U.S. and Australia could add small tonnage post-2028.
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Purity requirements (>6N) limit interchangeability between electronic and optical grades.
Demand Dynamics
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Fibre-optic network densification adds steady 4–5 % annual demand.
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Thermal-imaging uptake in EV ADAS and border security broadens IR optics market.
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Triple-junction space solar panels consume Ge wafers; satellite launches hit record highs.
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PET polymerisation catalysts shrink as rPET share rises, trimming low-grade offtake.
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Price volatility influences cable makers’ germanium-oxide inventory policies.