Heavy Rare-Earth Elements
Heavy REEs power high-temperature Nd-Fe-B magnets, medical imaging and green phosphors but originate mainly from ion-adsorption clays in southern China and conflict-ridden Myanmar. Regulatory crack-downs, border closings and rising ESG standards swing prices violently; meanwhile, grain-boundary diffusion and magnet‐swarf recycling are reducing Dy/Tb intensity just as Western projects (Browns Range, Round Top, Donald) inch toward FID.
Supply Dynamics
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Chinese & Myanmar clay leach deposits still supply >85 % of heavy REE mix; fresh militia control in Myanmar tightens quota exports.
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Illegal mining shutdowns create sudden 30-50 % spot price spikes.
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Browns Range (AU) and Round Top (US) target first concentrate mid-/late-2020s but fund-raising remains hurdle.
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Magnet-swarf and EV-motor recycling still <5 % of supply but scaling fast in Japan/EU.
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Separation capacity remains China-centric; Western solvent-extraction plants lag concentrate pipelines.
Demand Dynamics
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EV traction motors (>150 °C) and 15-MW offshore turbines set Dysprosium/Terbium demand slope.
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MRI contrast agents hinge Gadolinium needs to healthcare budgets.
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LED lighting keeps Y/Tb green-phosphor offtake stable despite OLED penetration.
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Magnet designers cut Dy loading by 50-70 % via diffusion, tempering intensity growth.
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Defence actuators and seekers are price-inelastic, anchoring a strategic baseline.