Iron Ore
Steel’s 1.9 Gt appetite still hinges on Pilbara and Carajás fines, yet the decarbonisation drive is tilting premiums toward ultra-high-grade magnetite pellets (<1 % gangue) suited for hydrogen-based DRI. Simandou’s 65 %-Fe ore is slated for first shipments in 2025–26, potentially reshaping the cost curve. ESG scrutiny on tailings and water use forces beneficiation upgrades and co-designed heritage plans across new projects.
Supply Dynamics
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Australia & Brazil still ship ≈70 % of seaborne tonnes; Pilbara lumps enjoy logistics edge.
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Simandou rail-port build nearing completion; 60 Mt per year, Phase 1 may displace some mid-grade supply.
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African magnetite (South Africa, Mauritania) & Saudi/MENA green-iron hubs target premium DR grade.
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Tailings-dam standards tighten CAPEX and delay approvals, especially for wet-processing hematite.
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Capesize freight volatility and canal draught limits reshape regional CFR cost curves.
Demand Dynamics
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Urbanisation and infrastructure in India/ASEAN underpin baseline fines demand.
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Hydrogen-DRI pilots (EU, MENA, China) require pellets >67 % Fe, boosting magnetite beneficiation.
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Automotive-lightweighting slightly tempers long-run per-capita steel intensity.
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Scrap EAF share climbs, but absolute ore demand plateaus only post-2030.
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Freight spreads and carbon-border tariffs influence mill blend choices monthly.