Lithium
The lightest metal is indispensable to Li-ion batteries. Hard-rock spodumene from Australia and brines in Chile/Argentina remain core feedstocks, but direct-lithium-extraction (DLE) pilots from Canada to Serbia and geothermal brines in the US/Europe are poised to diversify flows. After a 90 % price slide in 2023-24, oversupply masks an outlook in which EV uptake could still triple demand by 2030, making water rights, ESG, and recycling decisive.
Supply Dynamics
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Australia and Chile supply >65 % of LCE; Argentina fast-tracks brine expansions.
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China still refines >70 % of battery chemicals, but North-American and EU converters under construction.
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DLE promises lower water footprint yet faces scale-up and reagent-recycle hurdles.
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Recent oversupply forced project deferrals; long lead-times risk future deficits.
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Closed-loop recycling could meet ≥15 % of demand by 2030, easing primary pressure.
Demand Dynamics
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EV sales (~25 % CAGR) and stationary storage anchor structural growth.
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High-nickel and LFP chemistries alike rely on lithium, keeping substitution risk low.
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Solid-state and Li-metal anodes could raise per-kWh intensity post-2028.
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Glass/ceramics and greases provide price-inflexible baseload demand.
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Battery-grade Li₂CO₃/LiOH demand is migrating closer to cell gigafactories.