Nickel
Nickel delivers both corrosion resistance in stainless steel and high-energy density in NCA/NMC Li-ion cathodes. Indonesia’s ore-export ban has pushed billions into local HPAL and Rotary Kiln–Electric Furnace (RKEF) capacity, vaulting it to the top of the mine-supply league. Class-I sulphide nickel from Canada, Australia and Russia remains tight, and essential, for battery chemicals, spurring investments in carbonyl-refining of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) into battery-grade sulphate.
Supply Dynamics
-
Indonesia now delivers >50 % of mined units; HPAL/RKEF output scale enables rapid ramp-ups.
-
Canada and Australia expand sulphide projects (Eagle East, Voisey’s Bay UG, West Musgrave) to secure Class-I feed.
-
Russian Norilsk’s sanctions risk tightens Western feed availability despite ongoing flows via intermediaries.
-
MHP-to-sulphate carbonyl hubs in China & Korea bridge laterite feed to battery grade.
-
OEM offtake agreements and IRA/CBAM rules shift new refining into North America & the EU before 2030.
Demand Dynamics
-
Stainless steel still absorbs ~65 % of primary nickel; demand follows construction and consumer goods cycles.
-
High-Ni cathodes ( > 80 % Ni) keep EV energy density rising; every 1 GWh adds ≈5 kt Ni metal equivalent.
-
Alloy steels and Inconel/Monel superalloys grow with LNG, aerospace and chemical plants.
-
Indonesia’s low-grade laterite supply tempers price spikes but raises ESG scrutiny (tailings, CO₂).
-
Growing sodium-ion and LFP adoption caps very long-run cathode share but does not remove need for premium Class-I nickel.