Potash
Potash - chiefly muriate (KCl) and sulfate of potash (K₂SO₄) supplies the potassium that drives yield, fruit size and water-use efficiency. Global demand grows ~2 % CAGR with population, protein-rich diets and irrigated acreage, yet trade is concentrated in Saskatchewan solution mines and Russian/Belarusian shaft mines. Price spikes follow geopolitical shocks or rail bottlenecks; brine projects in Africa and Australia aim to smooth the cost curve later this decade.
Supply Dynamics
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Saskatchewan provides >35 % of exports; low-cost solution mines expand in phases.
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Saskatchewan provides >35 % of exports; low-cost solution mines expand in phases.
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SOP capacity from Utah solar ponds and Mannheim furnaces offers price-setting swing tonnes.
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Greenfield brine projects in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Republic of Congo and Western Australia target mid-2020s start-ups.
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Competitive freight and port access are decisive; 30 %+ of delivered cost is logistics.
Demand Dynamics
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NPK blends for row-crops anchor bulk demand; application rates track grain prices.
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SOP grades command premiums for chloride-sensitive crops (almonds, berries, tobacco).
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Emerging markets shift from single-nutrient to balanced fertilisation, raising K₂O intensity.
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Nutrient-use-efficiency tech (polymers, fertigation) tempers per-hectare growth but stabilises volume.
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Fertiliser demand proves recession-resilient. Weather, not GDP, drives year-to-year swings.