Tin
Tin’s unmatched wetting and low-melting traits make it the backbone of lead-free solders, tinplate cans and PV ribbon. Indonesia and China mine half the metal, while Myanmar and artisanal DRC concentrates feed Chinese smelters. With solid-state and Li-ion chemistries testing Sn-Sb and SnO₂ anodes, the metal is gaining a potential second growth engine just as circular-electronics rules boost solder-dross recycling.
Supply Dynamics
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China & Indonesia supply ~55 % of refined metal; Indonesian export-licence delays move LME prices fast.
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Conflict-affected concentrates from Myanmar/DRC periodically face smelter embargoes.
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Recycling of solder dross/e-scrap now 17 % of supply; EU “right-to-repair” laws push this higher.
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New hard-rock projects in Australia and Namibia aim to supply IRA-compliant feed.
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OECD traceability audits restrict uncertified ore, tightening effective supply.
Demand Dynamics
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Electronics solder absorbs ≈ 50 % of tin; server, EV and 5 G hardware lift high-reliability alloy demand.
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Canned-food tinplate is mature but defensive, which means consumption follows population, not GDP cycles.
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Solar-panel ribbon demand tracks global PV installations; silver-thrifting raises Sn share per cell.
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Battery-grade Sn anodes in pilot lines could add > 30 kt annual demand after 2028.
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Substitution by Bi-Sn or Ag-Sn limited by cost and reliability constraints.